Happy humpday Coachmen, we hope your week has been going as well as ours has! Monday’s trade ideas continue to extend their gains as F45 soared by another 4.05% and Hologic jumped by an additional 2.41% during Tuesday’s trading session. Speaking of Tuesday, Continental Resources ended the day 3% in the green, and Exxon Mobil climbed by 1.28%. Enough of a victory lap, keep reading today's special report to learn about the global economic trends that could make or break your trading in the coming months.
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Update on the Conflict in Ukraine
This past week has been a doozy in terms of international affairs. Let’s start with the war in Ukraine, the Mariupol steel plant has been fully evacuated by Ukrainian forces as the Russian onslaught was starving them of essential supplies, including clean water, and most importantly, ammunition. Interestingly enough, there seem to be mullings of discontent within mainstream Russian media outlets. While we are unable to verify the translation of this video, it appears that some Russians are beginning to understand that the Ukrainian defence has been strong enough to postpone Russian advances, therefore allowing Western equipment and funding to pour into the region. We see this shift in thought displayed as the media guest in the video laments over the underfunded, under-equipped, and under enthused Russian units currently fighting. Outside of opinions on the war within Russia, there have been recent pushes to grant NATO membership to both Finland, and Sweden. Both countries have requested to join, however, Turkish leader Raycip Erdogan is threatening to sink the deal as those Nordic nations have existing sanctions against the country. Erdogan is likely to capitulate, and use the concession as a bargaining chip for one of Turkey’s other geopolitical goals. To complement the hollow threats made by Erdogan, Putin has also said that if the two nations station military bases or nuclear weapons within them, it “would certainly provoke our response”.
The Beginnings of Resource Nationalism
Now for the section you’ve all been waiting for, the explanation of the ongoing resource nationalism pushes that are springing up worldwide. As we mentioned previously during our long on $WEAT, Russia and Ukraine have halted exports of wheat since the outbreak of the conflict, since then Hungary closed off wheat exports in advance of crucial harvesting seasons due to fears of famine. But in the last week, there has been another major development, India has also halted all exports of wheat, as the country is nervous about the ongoing riots in neighbouring Sri Lanka, due to famine and lack of fuel. We believe that this trend will only continue, as the true impact of the export ban from the breadbasket of Europe begins to dawn on global leaders. That being said, there is one nation that prepared, China. China has stockpiled roughly 150% of its annual national consumption in staple commodities such as wheat, corn and soybeans. This gives China immense leverage over other countries, especially poorer ones in Africa and the Middle East who can’t afford the current price hikes. Nations that would have once scoffed at a BRI loan for some unnecessary project, will now be much more willing to come to the bargaining table. When faced with the choice of widespread starvation, or signing a contract with the Chinese, no matter how absurd the terms are, nine times out of ten they’ll sign. Barring intervention from the Western powers, the global chessboard could be turned evermore in China’s favour over the course of just a few short months.
Chart of the Day: The Ever Rising US Debt