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No job 4 you.

Happy Friday folks! While the market continued its turbulence yesterday, buyers took control and advanced equities 1% by close - this is indicative of investor expectations for today’s employment figures having been positive. Regardless, non-farm payrolls came in at 315,000 today vs the median 318,000 that was forecasted by economists; this brought the unemployment rate to 3.7%. Read on for your daily dose of market inspiration and remember to mind our suggested timelines if trading a CR recommendation!


"Look back over the past, with its changing empires that rose and fell, and you can foresee the future, too."

- Marcus Aurelius


Market Talk

Prior to this morning’s jobs release the market’s slight bounce did not continue overnight with futures trading down in the pre-market. As a result, the S&P 500 is currently trading below its established price channel, however the minor price rejection of the lower level yesterday lends credence towards this action being more of a fakeout than anything else; that said, if traders react favourable to this morning’s employment release and the index doesn’t sell-off any further, next week’s start to the Q3 earnings season is a real catalyst for higher equity prices. The sustained downtrend in oil prices is also a large factor supporting equities and with a death cross just around the corner on the day chart for crude, sustaining this trend is becoming more and more likely.


Short: Nio, Inc. ADR (NIO-NYSE) | Timeline: 4 days

The Chinese EV maker (NIO) is releasing earnings on September 7, and we believe that this will likely be a disappointing print as a result of the aggressive Chinese lockdowns and the recent droughts, which have led to factory shutdowns across the mainland. The company has also likely been faced with elevated material and energy costs which will negatively impact its bottom line. The aforementioned Covid lockdowns have also led to a steep decline in demand for most consumer goods, as citizens have had less freedom to navigate the country throughout the past months (read more here). Lower oil prices, and therefore lower gas prices, will also likely have decreased the urgency of making a switch to an electric car for many. The technicals also support this trade, as the company is trading below all moving averages, after being unable to hold above the 50-day for over a month. Momentum and the MACD also support a bearish scenario, as they currently sit at -1.12, and -0.22 respectively.


Short: Tilly’s, Inc. (TLYS-NYSE) | Timeline: 2 days

Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS), which operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods in the United States has reported a quite unfavourable operating report yesterday after market close, missing earnings and revenue estimates by 18.75% and 1.44%, respectively. The company has been struggling under a copious amount of macroeconomic pressure, as they’ve been “negatively affected by the impact on our customers of the highest inflationary environment in 40 years, which we expect will also adversely impact our third quarter results,” says CEO Ed Thomas (Source). The chart depicts the same narrative, as the price per share has struggled to break above its 100-day MA while recently breaking below a rising wedge - and after this quarter's report and a statement from the CEO, investors and traders are unlikely to have any optimism in the stock moving anywhere but downward.


Chart of the Day: Luxury Goods Bubble - Rolex Prices Downtrending…

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