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A Dovish December?

Welcome to December folks! We ended the month with a bang yesterday as the S&P rose sharply on dovish sentiment from the Fed which outlined a possible decrease in the rate at which JPow would be hiking rates through to the end of Q1 2023 - This has brought the probability of a 50 bp hike on December 14th’s FOMC meeting to a probability of 77%! Read more on that, Qatar’s natural gas deals, and India’s CBDC below in this 164th Coachman’s Report!


Markets in Review

After gaining 3.1% in yesterday’s session, the S&P has done something it hasn’t since April and crossed the 200-day moving average! This is a large stride in terms of establishing a truly bullish long-term trend once again - additionally, indices are posturing for more green as futures on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq are trading +16, 35 and 36 bps respectively in the premarket currently. Moreover, the advance of equities is having quite an interesting effect on longer tenors as we’ve actually seen yields decrease multiple bps across the board since the week’s start. Lastly, despite opening up, this market still has to get over the hump of tomorrow’s jobs report which is forecasting another 200k in payrolls to be added for the month of November.


Short: G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII-NASDAQ) | Timeline: 2 days

G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII), which designs, sources, and markets women's and men's apparel in the United States and internationally, reported quite disappointing earnings this morning. The company missed EPS estimates by 31.43% and just managed to match revenue estimates, however, net income came in at $61.1 million, down from $106.7 million in the prior year’s quarter. (Full Story) Referring to the chart, GIII has been oscillating through this downward channel for the entirety of 2022, coming down from highs of approximately $31. That said, as the stock approaches the upper part of the channel, Stochastic RSI has signalled extremely overbought levels - and along with negative news, traders should expect a hard rejection from this line of resistance.


Zooming out...

Qatar Wheels and Deals

Qatar has struck a deal with Germany to supply natural gas over a 15-year period. Starting in 2026, 2 million tons of LNG is going to be exported to Germany annually. While great in theory, the deal would only represent roughly 6% of the total volume that Germany imported from Russia during 2021. Moreover, it doesn’t help the Germans resolve the pending energy crisis they face between now and the time of the deal’s commencement.

This announcement comes only days after Qatar announced a 27-year LNG deal with Chinese conglomerate Sinopec in which they’ll supply 4 million tons of LNG per year, starting at the same time as Germany’s agreement. Qatar seems to be the big winner of these negotiations, maneuvering themselves into the very favourable position of being relied upon by two of the largest international players.

Cold Reception for India’s CBDC

About a month after beginning the country’s pilot digital Rupee program, India has seen little interest in its digital wholesale Rupee program. Throughout the month of November, the new form of currency was restricted to block sales and had controlled user groups testing out the new infrastructure. Although this program drummed up low amounts of support due to its similarity to existing infrastructure, the program is set to expand to a wider swathe of retailers and consumers starting today.

India’s public and private sector receptions to the new form of money will be telling as governments spanning the globe, including the UK, Canada and the US, begin to consider, and implement similar currency schemes.


Making headlines...

Chinese users play cat-and-mouse with censors amid protests

  • Videos of hundreds protesting in Shanghai started to appear on WeChat on Saturday night. Showing chants about removing COVID-19 restrictions and demanding freedom, they would stay up only a few minutes before being censored. (Full Story)

Russia’s Labor-Starved Economy Pays Price of Putin’s Call-Up

  • The call-up of men to fight in Ukraine has left labour so scarce in Russia that entire industries are in distress. (Full Story)

Canadian banks gird for loan loss threat as economic outlook sours

  • Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Montreal on Thursday joined their bigger peers in setting aside more money to cover potential loan defaults by inflation-hit customers. (Full Story)

Tesla to issue software updates for 435,000 cars in China over marker light issue

  • Tesla Inc will issue software updates for more than 435,000 vehicles in China to fix an issue with side marker lights that could in extreme circumstances lead to a collision, a regulatory body said. (Full Story)


Chart of the Day: US Pending Home Sales Down 37% YoY


Freedom is not only bought with a great price; it is maintained by unremitting effort. - Calvin Coolidge


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